The Challenge - Volvo needed to decide between competing programs of new product offerings. Automobile firms must commit to new platforms that will carry their business for years. The wisdom of any given choice depends upon myriad uncertain guesses, such as what will happen over those years to the price of oil, consumer taste, financial exchange rates, and economic conditions. This massive uncertainty made it difficult to utilize the significant knowledge and information they did possess.

The Process – We leveraged the firm's existing models and data within our RAP™ analytic environment to track the interactions among the myriad presently unknown factors. We then used the RAP™ methods to compare the performance of alternative plans, and to find those with high upside potential in the most optimistic scenarios and limited downside potential in the most pessimistic.

The Solution – These techniques allowed us to frame and select robust plans in the face of massive uncertainty about future competitors, markets, technology, and costs. The visual language provided by RAP™ allowed planning teams to mix both their data and intuitions while avoiding decisions swayed by emotion not facts. Based upon this outcome, the client has engaged Evolving Logic on several efforts to develop prototype planning tools based upon RAP™ methods and technology


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